Why are blind boxes everywhere?

Modern retail is a system supposedly built on certainty. Online, consumers are given exhaustive product descriptions, reviews, measurements and styling guidance designed to eliminate doubt. In-store, the story is the same. A good sales associate is one who knows their product inside out. Knowledge is power. Recently, however, something has begun to change. Instead of craving certainty, customers are choosing instead to be surprised. In 2025, Labubus became a global sensation. Their fuzzy cuteness may be what drew consumers in initially, but it was the blind-box format that arguably has turned them into a mega-hit. When you buy a Labubu, you never know which one you’ll get. The surprise is the point. A similar dynamic can be seen in the rise of prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Want to bet on who will become the next Pope? Or perhaps gambling on the next editor-in-chief of Vogue is more your speed? All bets are on. Labubus and the prediction market are the obvious examples, but it doesn’t end there. Elsewhere, French-Belgian Cookware brand Le Creuset is using the blind-box format to give new life to old inventory. Meanwhile, streetwear mystery box retailers such as Heat and Hypedrop continue to tempt customers with the prospect of purchasing grails at clearance prices. So, what is it about blind boxes and speculative commerce more broadly that has consumers in such a chokehold, and where is it all headed? The origin of blind boxes Blind boxes are a retail format where consumers do not know the contents of their purchase until after the transaction is made. The concept itself is not novel. Blind boxes have their roots in Japanese gachapon (capsule toys) machines created by gaming company Bandai Namco in the 1960s. Insert a coin, turn the handle, see what pops out the other side. What has changed is not the logic of blind boxes, but how popular they have recently become. Why today? With Gen Zers becoming the primary driver of blind box purchases, it would be easy to file blind boxes away as a quirk of youth. Another microtrend that dissipates as quickly as it appears. To classify blind boxes as another fad, however, would be to ignore the deeper anxieties that gave rise to the phenomenon. Tony Wang is the founder of the Office of Applied Strategy – a brand consultancy that boasts a formidable portfolio working with the likes of 032C, Ssence and Chanel. In a recent article exploring the power of spectacle Wang attributes the rising popularity of speculative commerce to an increasing desire by consumers to regain control in a time of information overload. “In a world where it feels like we’ve already lost control, giving it up intentionally becomes an act of resistance” he writes. Speculation “transforms otherwise pedestrian consumer decisions into thrilling moments that money can’t buy.” It’s cliched by now to say that we live in a time of algorithmic flattening. Entire books have been written about how culture appears to be stagnating. The power of mystery boxes is in offering a moment of excitement or a dopamine spike that is now rarely found. Blind boxes also play into the idea of meaningful friction. Earlier this month, The Cut suggested that we all needed to be “friction-maxxing” — embracing difficulty and effort in a context where it has all been smoothed away. Omen is a start-up based in Hong Kong that curates blind boxes of fashion and lifestyle goods. Products from its Drop 00 event included items such as sunglasses by Gentle Monster and hoodies by Kapital. Omen’s founder, Jerry Kwok, formerly an analyst at LVMH based in Hong Kong, finds blind boxes a meaningful way of bringing back meaningful existence to commerce. “I think blind boxes reintroduce useful friction to the consumer experience. When something comes too easily, we tend to value it less,” says Kwok. “Intentional friction combined with surprise make the experience and what’s inside more valuable and memorable.” Then there’s the gaming element. Younger consumers, who spend more time playing video games than any generation before them, are already deeply familiar with blind box mechanics. Fortnite anyone? Will it continue? Taken together, the rise of blind boxes reflects a convergence of speculation, friction, and learned behavior. The uncertainty of the reveal produces a speculative high, friction sharpens the reward, and video games have trained consumers to see randomness as entertaining rather than risky. When combined, they create a perfect storm for blind boxes to take center stage. Will blind boxes endure in their current form? It’s hard to say. But whatever shape they take next, the underlying drivers — speculation, friction, and gamified engagement — show no sign of disappearing.

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Why are blind boxes everywhere?