Has China broken the Birkin?

Users on Chinese social media are debating whether the Hermès Birkin’s bubble is bursting. Much of the latest round traces to a Reuters report published on October 21, which found the bag’s resale premium has shrunk as more Birkins reach the secondhand market. As the article circulates on Xiaohongshu (also known as RedNote), commenters there are asking whether the bag is still worth the wait and the price tag. New data provided by ReHub’s platform LuxuryIQ, a market-intelligence platform from Digital Luxury Group (DLG), indicates Chinese shoppers still want the bag but are growing more sensitive to price. Hermès has raised its mainland boutique price for a Birkin 25 in Togo leather by about 22% since 2024, to 115,000 RMB ($17,100) today, LuxuryIQ’s figures show. “The Birkin has not lost its status in China,” Max Peiro, chief executive of Re-Hub, a DLG company, told Jing Daily. “What has changed is the price of skipping the queue.” Peiro said that on Dewu, a Chinese marketplace that authenticates goods before sale and where the same bag is sold new, its price rose about 7% over the same period. Its premium over retail on the platform fell to about 1.5 times, from 1.7 times. Beyond China, the stakes are larger. Hermès built a business with a 41% recurring operating margin on the promise that a Birkin is hard to get. In October, UBS downgraded the stock to “sell,” warning that growing secondhand supply of Birkins and Kellys could weaken that scarcity-driven model, Reuters reported. Hermès shares have lost nearly 40% so far this year. Chinese buyers helped turn the Birkin into a tradable asset, but now they may be exposing the limits of its scarcity. The price of skipping the queue Resellers interviewed by Reuters said access to a Birkin is generally tied to spending on other Hermès products, such as scarves, clothes and shoes, though the policy differs by region and store. Two of them estimated that clients typically spend $10,000 to $20,000 before being offered one. Hermès does not disclose its selling policies. Asked about this story, Hermès said it “has no comments on this matter.” Buyers who pay the resale premium are paying to skip that process. In China, Hermès has raised its boutique price faster than resale prices have climbed. The Dewu price is still up, at roughly 170,000 RMB ($25,300); only the gap has narrowed. “Chinese buyers still pay well above retail,” Peiro said. “They are simply no longer willing to pay any price.” Those figures cover one model in mainland China. Bernstein, which tracks auction results, estimated in a September note, cited by Reuters, that Birkin 25 bags resold at about 1.7 times retail in the third quarter, down from about 2.6 times at their 2022 peak. LuxuryIQ tracks sales on Dewu, while Bernstein tracks auctions, so the two measures should not be compared directly. Buyers are still there LuxuryIQ tracks six versions of the Birkin 25 in Togo leather on Dewu, and each has found buyers every month since January 2024. Over two years, sales fell 8% while prices rose by a high single-digit percentage. “This is not Chinese consumers walking away from Hermès,” Peiro said. “Buyers are still there. They have become more disciplined on price. Desirability is intact.” Daigou networks — personal shoppers who buy luxury goods abroad for clients in mainland China — along with cross-border traders and Hong Kong’s auction rooms helped make the Birkin a resale asset in China. UBS estimates that Birkin and Kelly listings worldwide are now six to seven times pre-pandemic levels, Reuters reported. In China, owners and resellers trade the bag on Dewu, Xianyu (Alibaba’s secondhand marketplace) and Hongbulin (a pre-owned luxury platform), and it is a fixture on Xiaohongshu and Douyin, especially in celebrity street-style posts. Whether that exposure has peaked is now a debate of its own. In September, New York magazine’s The Cut reported on rich women who say influencers have “killed” the Birkin. A luxury bag must be recognizable enough to want, but not so common that it stops signaling anything. Chinese netizen reaction On Xiaohongshu, much of the debate centers on price and value. “Hermès is honestly the brand that needs to stop being spoiled,” one user wrote under a post by a fashion publication. “Low cost, zero design, it’s really not even as good as LV. At least LV gives you more emotional value.” Emotional value is a popular term in China for how a purchase makes the buyer feel, beyond its practical use. “Any Hermès bag that is actually decent is insanely expensive,” another wrote under the same post. “Aside from the Picotin [bucket bag] these past few years, nothing has really blown up. They’re always lacking design. Just look at LV and Chanel, they keep dropping iconic styles, right?” Others described a saturated market. “The wealthy folks already have tons of them so there’s really no desire to buy anymore,” one wrote. Another added: “I feel like everyone’s more into upgrading their quality of life and practicality these days.” A third wrote that once “the wealthy stop using Hermès to flex, the middle class won’t pay that premium anymore. It’s gonna lead to a total collapse in the end, and there’s no turning back.” Some joked it was time to buy a bargain Birkin. These comments are far gloomier than the sales data, and nothing shows that the people posting them buy or collect Birkins. Still, they show what some Xiaohongshu users say matters to them: design and emotional value. Leather goods, the division that includes the Birkin, made up about 46% of Hermès’ revenue in the first nine months of 2026, the company’s figures show. The division’s sales rose 10% at constant exchange rates over that period, though Hermès said Greater China was stable “in a more difficult context.” If the resale premium keeps shrinking, so does the reward for spending to qualify. In LuxuryIQ’s Dewu figures, the premium looks to be leveling off. “At around 1.5x retail, the premium has settled at a more realistic level,” Peiro said. So far, Chinese buyers have repriced the Birkin without breaking it. The risk for Hermès is that its most important buyers start to treat the Birkin as a product with a price, rather than a prize with a queue.

Has China broken the Birkin?

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Has China broken the Birkin?

TUMI’s new growth playbook: From travel expertise to lifestyle performance