What’s next for Swiss watches in China?

This year may have begun with a bang, but it seems poised to end with a whimper for Swiss watchmakers. Exports to China reached 194.4 million Swiss francs ($219.3 million) in January, a 5% YoY increase, but fell to 167.4 million Swiss francs ($188.9 million) in October — a decline of more than 48% YoY. From January to October 2024, Swiss watch exports to China totaled 1.75 billion ($1.97 billion) Swiss francs, nearly 26% less than the 2.27 billion Swiss francs ($2.56 billion) recorded in the same period in 2023. The Federation’s latest statistics, for October, paint a sobering picture of China’s luxury market. Swiss watchmakers that month reported a 39% plunge in exports to mainland China, contributing to an overall 2.8% dip in global shipments, which totaled 2.3 billion Swiss francs ($2.56 billion). This marks the second consecutive month of decline, raising questions about the industry’s trajectory for 2025. China’s sharp decline in demand for Swiss watches contrasts with strong performances in other key markets. The US and Japan posted gains of 11% and 20%, respectively, buoyed by consumer confidence and favorable currency trends. Globally, high-end models priced above 3,000 Swiss francs ($3,340) showed relative resilience, with a modest 1.7% increase in export value, even as unit sales dropped 4%. For China, the data underscores a seismic shift. Between 2021 and 2023, Chinese consumers drove record sales, fueled by pent-up demand and strong economic conditions. That momentum dissipated in 2024. Economic headwinds — including faltering business confidence and a fragile real estate market — have dampened demand, particularly for mid-range Swiss watches priced between 500 and 3,000 Swiss francs ($556 to $3,340), exports of which plunged 21% by value. Early signs of recovery? Despite the gloom, some signs of recovery are emerging. In September, Beijing unveiled economic stimulus measures that are beginning to take effect. The CSI 300 Index, a barometer of investor sentiment, climbed 20% over the past two months, while retail sales growth accelerated to 5% in October, bolstered by a record-breaking Double 11 shopping festival. Even China’s beleaguered property market — a cornerstone of its economic health — has shown signs of stabilization. October saw a 2% YoY rise in residential transactions across major cities, marking the first positive growth in 2024. These developments could boost consumer confidence among high-net-worth individuals. Hurdles ahead Ultimately, several challenges continue to persist for Swiss brands. Structural vulnerabilities in real estate remain a drag, while the broader macroeconomic landscape casts uncertainty over the effectiveness of Beijing’s stimulus measures. Many economists caution that the full impact of these policies may not materialize until mid-2025, leaving the luxury sector in limbo. In 2025, Swiss watchmakers face shifting consumer trends in mainland China. One of the most significant transformations is the continued rise of value-conscious consumption. Affluent Chinese buyers increasingly favored subtle sophistication over conspicuous displays of wealth in 2024, opting for brands that emphasize quality, craftsmanship, and timeless appeal. This trend should have benefited many Swiss watchmakers, particularly lesser-known independent brands. However, China’s economic slowdown largely negated these advantages. To re-engage Chinese buyers in 2025, brands must communicate selling points like exclusivity and heritage more effectively. Digital strategies — such as virtual try-ons and livestream events — may help bridge the gap. Sustainability initiatives also hold promise. Younger generations, particularly eco-conscious millennials and Gen Z, are drawn to brands that align with their values. Offering ethically sourced materials, repair services, and recycling programs could position Swiss watchmakers as leaders in sustainable luxury.

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What’s next for Swiss watches in China?