Want a Rolex this year? It’ll cost you

Time is ticking on that bargain Rolex. Try Cartier or Jaeger Le-Coultre instead. U.S. President Donald Trump’s shock 39% tariff on Swiss-made imports to the U.S. is pushing up prices for luxury watches. As some consumers seek to beat the levies by choosing used watches instead, second-hand values are inflating again. But there are still deals to be found on the secondary market if buyers are prepared to forego the best-known names and models for something a little less obvious. From pandemic boom to tariff squeeze Watches have been on a rollercoaster ride over the past five years. Interest exploded during the pandemic; with demand outstripping supply, waiting lists grew and many buyers turned to used timepieces, sending prices for popular models soaring. That all changed in spring 2022, when markets gyrated, cryptocurrencies collapsed and interest rates spiked, bursting the secondhand market. That downward trajectory has now ended, at least for the leading privately held brands. Secondary watch prices rose 1.5% in the three months to September 30, compared with the previous quarter, the first clear pick up in values since the first quarter of 2022, according to the latest report from Morgan Stanley and research platform WatchCharts. The Bloomberg Subdial Index, which tracks prices for the 50 most-traded models, is up about 3.7% in the past six months measured in U.S. dollars. Why new watch prices keep climbing To find out what’s driving the secondary gains, we need to look at the market for new watches. The punitive Swiss tariff rate is forcing brands to raise prices in America. Patek Philippe put through a 15% U.S. hike in mid-September, while Cartier lifted most models by 10%. After two increases this year, Rolex has yet to announce any further escalation. But retailers and collectors are keeping a close eye on its next move. So far, the blow has been softened by stockpiling. But these extra inventories will be exhausted by the end of the year, Oliver Muller, founder of industry advisory firm LuxeConsult, estimates. Some wealthy customers scrambled to secure their watch of choice before the hikes came into effect. Others are trading down, say from a gold Rolex to gold and steel, or just steel. It helps that Rolex offers similar options in different metals. Waiting lists are still growing. Rolex is expected to make 1.2 million models this year, with just 72,000 produced by Patek Philippe and 51,000 at Audemars Piguet, according to Vontobel Wealth Management. But for Rolex, waiting lists are concentrated on the highly desirable sport models, such as the Daytona, Submariner and GMT-Master. Other buyers are turning to used timepieces to beat the tariffs. Consequently, Subdial has seen a surge in secondary market activity this year. With more buyers, and the supply of used timepieces in the U.S. largely limited to those already in the country, prices are stabilizing. Big three lead the rebound Equity markets and cryptocurrencies melting up — at least until recently — and the jump in gold prices may also be playing a part. And just as meme stocks are back, so might a little horology speculation be taking place; the two-and-a-half-year slide in values had piqued the interest of some collectors, particularly for Rolex, Audemars Piguet and Patek Philippe. The big three, which account for about 60% of the secondary market, led the previous boom and bust. Patek Philippe and Rolex are at the forefront of this year’s nascent recovery too. A clutch of names, such as Richemont’s Cartier, Swatch’s Omega and LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton’s TAG Heuer also saw their secondary values increase in the third quarter, according to Morgan Stanley and WatchCharts. (Swatch saw the biggest lift thanks to its MoonSwatch, but these are lower priced models). But many timepieces available on the secondary market still look attractive. Rolex is the only brand whose watches trade meaningfully above the retail price of new models with an average premium of 15.7%. And even here, around half of the models still being made trade above retail. (When watches are discontinued, as ranges are refreshed or limited editions reach their end, their values typically increase). At Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet, the majority of watches trading above retail are from the most-hyped lines, namely Nautilus and Aquanaut, and the Royal Oak, respectively. No other brand has more than a handful of models commanding secondary market premiums. The undervalued alternatives At Cartier, watches still in production are on average 31% cheaper than new versions. That’s tempting for buyers enticed by the brand, which is gaining in popularity. Average prices for Omega and IWC models on the secondary market are around 40% below retail. Little wonder the volume of transactions for these three brands have surged. Another storied name gaining traction is Richemont’s Jaeger-LeCoultre. Yet prices declined by 5.2% in the third quarter, and most used models in the Reverso line, described by GQ magazine as the “It watch of 2025,” trade substantially below retail. It’s not clear whether the momentum in the secondary market will last, but unless there’s relief on the Swiss tariff rate, prices for new watches are likely to escalate further. Anyone thinking of splashing their bonus on some serious wrist bling would be wise to take note. By Andrea Felsted, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering consumer goods and the retail industry. This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

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Want a Rolex this year? It’ll cost you