Trump’s second term: Key changes China can expect

What happened Today marks the day Donald Trump is officially sworn in for a second term as U.S. president, returning to the White House this afternoon in Washington, D.C. Since election day, Trump has unveiled an ambitious slate of policy proposals, announced key appointments, and engaged with foreign leaders. On his first day back in office, the president plans to sign a record-breaking 200 executive orders, tackling issues such as border security, energy independence, and the elimination of diversity hiring initiatives. Last weekend, Trump also launched the cryptocurrency meme coin “$Trump” ahead of his inauguration. Announced on Truth Social and X, the digital asset skyrocketed in value, rising from $20 to over $70 per token, with trading volume exceeding $24 billion and a market capitalization surpassing $14 billion. TikTok’s closure only added fuel to the fire. After going dark on Sunday, the app was swiftly reinstated following Trump’s vow to sign an executive order addressing the platform’s status. Users were met with a notification crediting Trump as its savior — a move that has sparked propaganda debates among American Gen Z. The Jing Take Amid the crypto buzz and TikTok furore, Trump’s proposed policy agenda offers China an early preview of what to expect over the next four years. Trump’s return to the White House carries an undercurrent of unease. The memory of his first term’s trade war, which imposed tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports, looms large. His renewed pledge to impose sweeping tariffs on most imports is poised to ripple across the global fashion industry, where much of the U.S. market’s apparel is manufactured overseas. Analysts from Goldman Sachs and UBS predict that Trump may back away from his campaign promise of a staggering 60% tariff on Chinese goods, with UBS estimating that a more moderate 10% rate would spare retail earnings from significant damage. However, a looming 25% tariff on Mexican-made goods poses a sharper threat. Mexico has emerged as a key manufacturing alternative to China for many garment producers, and such measures could disrupt these supply chains. Meanwhile, a renewed trade war would place China in a weaker position than in 2018, as the country contends with a property market in crisis, escalating local government debt, and youth unemployment hovering at 16% as of November 2024. Chinese Vice President Han Zheng reportedly met with Tesla CEO Elon Musk and other U.S. business leaders in Washington ahead of Trump’s inauguration, expressing hope that American companies would “take root” in China and help stabilize bilateral relations, according to Xinhua news agency. Despite his TikTok reprieve, during which the president proposed a “joint venture” with ByteDance, Trump is still set to battle for the U.S.’s AI supremacy against China. The U.S. currently leads in AI development, but China remains a formidable rival, with plans to shape global AI rules by 2030. With significant government-backed research and investments in tech giants like Baidu and Alibaba, China has made advancements in robotics, machine learning, large language models, and autonomous driving, outpacing many global competitors. President Trump has pledged to reverse Biden-era regulations, including an executive order that imposed safety and security measures on AI. While Biden restricted exports of U.S.-developed AI chips to limit China’s access, Trump plans to adopt a more aggressive approach by easing regulations, allowing Silicon Valley to innovate and deploy AI technologies at speed. This deregulation is likely to be welcomed by major tech firms, with Trump enjoying support from industry leaders like Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg, whose recent swing to the right has seen Meta scale back on fact-checking and DEI initiatives.

Trump’s second term: Key changes China can expect

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Published January 20, 2025

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Trump’s second term: Key changes China can expect