Fashion recession indicators: China vs. Western styles

What do peplum tops, Jeffrey Campbell Lita platforms, skinny jeans and indie sleaze all have in common, besides being ghosts of the 2010s? According to the internet, they’re now “recession indicators,” aka fashion’s unofficial red flags for looming economic downturns. But what exactly qualifies as a recession indicator? “The first are real-world signs in commerce and culture — things like hiked egg prices, smaller restaurant tips, or the rise in frozen pizza sales,” says Annie Corser, senior editor of pop culture and trends at consultancy Stylus. “Then there’s the second kind, more prevalent online — recession indicators tied to a kind of dark nostalgia for the 2008 crash. That’s where the peplum tops, big flashy handbags, and indie sleaze come in.” And in 2025, the indicators are everywhere. From the comeback of “boho chic” (thanks in part to Chloé’s new creative director Chemena Kamali), to the rise of longer hemlines and “recession blonde” hair, fashion is once again reading the room. Economic signals beyond the runway With growth in the luxury fashion market remaining slow and U.S. President Trump’s global tariffs casting a long shadow over trade, the resurgence of recession-era style feels less like coincidence and more like inevitability. In early April, J.P. Morgan Research raised the chances of a U.S. recession in 2025 to 60%, up from 40%. And while the recent rollback of Liberation Day tariffs may ease some global pressure, a blanket 10% universal tariff, and a staggering 145% tariff on Chinese goods (a number Trump may pivot back on), continues to threaten economic stability. The fashion crystal ball: Can your closet predict a crash? Fashion has long mirrored the mood of the economy. In a Reel posted last week, online fashion insights analysts Molly Rooyakkers, aka @styleanalytics on Instagram and TikTok, used data to explore whether aesthetics like “indie sleaze” are more than just cyclical revivals, but actual predictors of economic downturns. According to Rooyakkers’ findings, historically, when mini skirts make a comeback, consumer confidence in the economy tends to dip. The resurgence of trends such as “office siren” core, the 2010s inspired “normcore” and business casual style are also said to indicate a shift back to corporate work as a possible response to rising financial pressure. But “recession indicators” are just one thread in a broader cultural shift unfolding across both the West and China. China’s quiet response: #MinimalismLife and economic realities In China, social-media-driven trends like Xiaohongshu’s #minimalismlife (#极简生活) and #lowdesirelife reflect a growing preference for pared-back living and reduced consumerism. As economic pressures mount, including the ripple effects of Trump’s trade war fallout, China’s fashion landscape is already beginning to adjust. Domestic influencers and KOLs are changing how they market to audiences — focusing more on affordability and practicality — and rethinking brand partnerships in response to shrinking brand budgets. Although the term “recession indicator” is yet to make as much of a splash in China as it has in the West, the sentiment behind it is taking root. With rising costs on the horizon, consumers are leaning into a quieter, more intentional style language, such as minimal cuts, muted tones, and fashion that favors function over flash, says Xuan Wang, Partner at consumer intelligence agency Tong Global. “While there isn’t a direct apple-to-apple counterpart, the economic downturn has clearly influenced the styles and shopping decisions consumers are making,” Wang says. “The ongoing ‘recession’ trend has prompted a shift toward more timeless, minimalist fashion — classic cuts, neutral tones, and logo-free pieces — valued for their versatility and ease of styling. As a result, understated apparel has become more desirable than attention-grabbing items with bold motifs or embellishments.” Wang points to the rise of “Uniqlo-style brands” in recent years, whether luxury or high-street, which have gained notable popularity by aligning with these evolving consumer preferences Emotional consumption: Style as economic therapy Customization and ornamentation — also framed as “recession indicators” — are similarly gaining momentum across both China and the West. In China, bag charms and heavily personalized accessories have surged in popularity, in part thanks to the mainland’s “guzi,” or anime merch trend. This rise of such expressive detail speaks to a wider behavioural shift among Chinese consumers, particularly younger demographics, who are increasingly drawn to “emotional consumption”; a trend centered on purchasing items that offer comfort, nostalgia or a sense of personal connection. In China, nostalgia has long shaped youth culture — but not as a direct response to economic turbulence. “The nostalgic trend began gaining traction between 2010 and 2020 — a period marked by rapid domestic income growth,” says Wang. Rather than reacting to hardship, Gen Z consumers have embraced nostalgia as a means of cultural reimagination, remixing vintage silhouettes and retro references into styles that feel distinctly modern. ‘Tu ku’ culture: China’s answer to recession aesthetics One subculture, “tuku” (土酷), fuses earthy 1990s aesthetics with a knowingly ironic flair, celebrating looks once deemed unfashionable. While Western “recession indicators” are tied to financial anxiety, China’s retro revival stems more from creative expression than economic constraint — though shifting market conditions may begin to blur that line. Meanwhile, in the West, could it be that these so-called “recession indicators” are less a direct response to economic hardship, and more an aesthetic coping mechanism? As the global fashion cycle accelerates and economic signals grow increasingly fragmented, today’s online-driven style ecosystem feels less like a clear trend and more like an amalgam of eras, emotions, and existential moods. “The difficulty is, today’s hyper-online climate and accelerated trend cycle is a massive mash-up of signals and hark-backs and nostalgia for multiple periods, all melting into one,” says Corser. “So, alongside the return of the messiness of noughties ‘indie sleaze,’ there is also the championing of minimalism, as a push away from flashy, label-heavy fashion flaunting, seen as distasteful during a financial crunch. But alongside that is the emerging ‘boom boom’ aesthetic, the glitzy look of money and power that’s more 1980s economic glory than 2020s #recessioncore.” What’s constant, Corser says, is intent: “People are using fashion and personal style to project their vision of status, their outlook on the world and how they perceive it, more than ever before. It’s a version of control in a world defined by unpredictability.”

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Fashion recession indicators: China vs. Western styles