China auto export growth slowed in 2024 as trade barriers rose | Data analysis

China’s meteoric rise as the world’s largest car exporter is showing signs of deceleration, even as Beijing launches ambitious domestic reforms to sustain industry momentum. Chinese passenger vehicle export growth plummeted to 26% year-on-year through October 2024, down sharply from 74% in 2023, according to new analysis by researchers at the independent intelligence firm Rhodium Group. Export values peaked in October 2023 when the EU launched its anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese electric vehicles. The slowdown comes despite significant unused production capacity — China’s passenger vehicle capacity utilization rate fell to 70.3% through Q3 2024, well below the 80% industry benchmark, the researchers found. “Rising trade barriers, inventory gluts, and slower EV adoption globally are creating headwinds,” Sebastian and Tian wrote in their report “From Fast Lane to Gridlock: Have Chinese Car Exports Peaked?” Global resistance Markets representing 44% of global auto demand are either banning or restricting Chinese vehicles. The US and close allies like Canada comprise a “banned bloc,” accounting for 21% of global demand, and are likely to close their markets over national security concerns. Meanwhile, the EU, ASEAN, and others make up a “restricted bloc,” representing 23% of the global market, and are more likely to introduce tariffs or trade barriers. Chinese automakers face mounting inventory challenges abroad, with unsold stock reaching 28 months of sales in the EU and 22 months in Brazil. Competition from Chinese overseas plants, which could add 1.5 million to 2 million units of capacity by 2027, is also crimping exports. Domestic push Amid these pressures, China’s Ministry of Commerce yesterday announced a three-year pilot program starting this year to boost domestic auto consumption. The reforms will relax car ownership restrictions, expand new energy vehicle adoption, and improve the used car market in selected pilot cities. “By 2027, we strive to foster innovative enterprises and establish replicable models to invigorate the automobile market,” the ministry said in a joint statement with seven other departments. The domestic push comes as China’s vehicle ownership per capita lags other middle-income economies like Brazil and Mexico. Beijing recently doubled subsidies for residents trading in old vehicles for new energy vehicles in 2025. However, Rhodium’s researchers warn that even with slower export growth, Chinese automakers are becoming “formidable global competitors.” While traditional export markets may be constrained, Chinese manufacturers’ cost advantages and EV leadership position them to gain market share through overseas production, particularly in Southeast Asia and South America. The Jing Daily Data Snapshot analyzes the latest data on China’s luxury and lifestyle markets.

China car exports growth plummets

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China car exports growth plummets