Rolex prices rise ahead of Watches & Wonders 2025
After prolonged market correction, February data shows first signs of stabilization in the premium timepiece sector; Watches & Wonders event may accelerate the recovery trend.
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Published March 22, 2025
After months of declining values in the secondary market, Rolex watches recorded their first price increase since September 2024, suggesting the luxury timepiece market may finally be stabilizing. According to recent data from WatchCharts, Rolex prices rose by 0.2% in February, a modest but significant shift that could signal the bottom of the prolonged market correction.
Rolex, Cartier, Piaget lead resilience at Watches & Wonders Geneva 2024
The slight upturn for Rolex comes against a backdrop of mixed performance in the broader luxury watch market. The WatchCharts Overall Market Index fell by 0.2% last month, continuing a trend of gradual decline, though at a markedly slower pace than seen throughout 2023 and much of 2024.
The ‘big three’ diverge: Rolex up, Patek down, Audemars flat #
Among the “Big Three” Swiss watchmakers, Rolex was the only brand to post positive numbers.
Patek Philippe continued its downward trajectory, with prices falling 0.8% in February and recording a substantial 6.5% decline over the past year. Meanwhile, Audemars Piguet prices remained effectively flat last month, suggesting a potential stabilization across premium timepieces.
Within the Rolex portfolio, the Air-King collection demonstrated particular resilience, increasing by 1.0% in February. The iconic Daytona collection also performed well, gaining 0.8% during the same period. This differentiated performance indicates that even within brands, collectors and investors are becoming increasingly selective.
The February data represents an important psychological milestone for the secondary watch market, which has been in correction mode for nearly two years. While a 0.2% increase may seem insignificant, it suggests that price discovery may finally be occurring after the pandemic-driven speculation has worked its way through the system.
The Watches & Wonders effect: How annual events shape market psychology #
Rolex’s positive performance aligns with historical patterns observed in the lead-up to Watches & Wonders, the industry’s premier event scheduled to begin on April 1. Data from WatchCharts shows that Rolex prices have typically seen a seasonal uplift in February and March ahead of the annual Geneva exhibition, where manufacturers unveil their latest models and collections.
This pattern has been particularly pronounced for Rolex over the past three years, though interestingly, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet have not typically experienced similar pre-event price increases. Market analysts attribute this difference to widespread speculation about potential Rolex model discontinuations and new releases that tend to circulate before the event.
Winners and losers: Omega rises while Hublot faces challenges #
The broader secondary watch market continues to present a complex picture. Omega joined Rolex with positive price movement, seeing a 0.7% increase in its Seamaster collection. Zenith was another standout performer, primarily driven by watches from its Defy collection. At the other end of the spectrum, Hublot experienced the steepest decline, with prices falling nearly 3% in February, while TAG Heuer saw its index value drop below the $3,000 threshold.
Despite challenges in the secondary market, Rolex continues to dominate the primary market. According to data from Morgan Stanley and LuxeConsult, Rolex maintains approximately 30% market share in the luxury watch sector, towering over competitors. This enduring dominance underscores why price movements in Rolex watches serve as a bellwether for the entire industry.
For Chinese collectors, who represent a significant portion of the global luxury watch market, the stabilization in Rolex prices may signal an opportune moment to re-enter the market after a prolonged period of price corrections. While China-specific data was not broken out in the WatchCharts report, previous industry analyses have noted that Chinese buyers have been particularly cautious about secondary market purchases since late 2022.
Luxury watch crisis: Can Gen Z save Swiss brands?
Market outlook: Is February’s data a blip, or the beginning of recovery? #
As Watches & Wonders approaches, all eyes will be on Rolex and other major manufacturers for potential new releases that could further influence the secondary market. The announcement of new models typically drives increased interest in discontinued references, while the introduction of sought-after designs can spark renewed enthusiasm throughout the collector community.
For now, the marginal increase in Rolex prices provides a glimmer of hope for a market that has endured significant turbulence over the past 24 months. Whether this represents a true bottom or merely a temporary respite remains to be seen, but after a prolonged decline, even a 0.2% increase feels like a meaningful shift for enthusiasts and investors alike.