Japan’s major travel agency JTB has lowered its 2026 inbound visitor forecast to 41.4 million, citing weakened Chinese travel demand and domestic capacity constraints. The revision follows a November 2025 Chinese government advisory urging citizens to avoid travel to Japan. Chinese tourists account for about 20% of Japan’s inbound arrivals, and the slowdown comes amid broader economic concerns in China. Japan also faces supply-side challenges, including sluggish growth in international flights and a shortage of airport staff. Hotel development is lagging, with projects such as a Hyatt near Nagoya delayed. Analysts warn that even if demand rebounds, these bottlenecks may prevent Japan from reaching its 2030 target of 60 million inbound tourists.

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