Bernstein has cut its 2025 growth forecast for the global luxury goods sector to a contraction of 2% from a previous estimate of 5% growth, citing “extreme” tariffs from the Trump administration and “looming stagflation.” Analyst Luca Solca warned that market uncertainty is creating a “self-fulfilling prophecy: a global recession” in a report titled “Fasten Your Seat Belts.” The downgrade came as luxury stocks were hit hard yesterday, with LVMH falling 4.2%, Kering 3.9%, Swatch Group 3.6%, and Richemont 1.8%. Solca expressed particular concern about the “second- and third-order effects” beyond the direct impact of tariffs, including market crashes and currency devaluation.