A 25% U.S. tariff on automobiles and auto parts is projected to significantly reduce automotive output in Japan and South Korea by about 7%, with broader effects than bilateral trade figures suggest. These nations rely heavily on U.S. car exports, including through manufacturing bases in countries like Mexico, which will also be impacted. The ripple effects could extend beyond the auto sector, affecting industries like basic metals, while relocating production to the U.S. or shifting markets may offer only limited relief.