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Bain sees China luxury recovery in H2 2025

Sales of personal luxury goods are projected to decline by 2% YoY this year, marking one of the weakest performances on record, according to Bain & Company. The consultancy attributes the downturn to price hikes, economic uncertainty, and a shrinking customer base, particularly in China, where sales are expected to drop by 20% to 22%. This marks the first decline in the sector since the 2008-09 financial crisis, aside from the pandemic. The report highlights a shift by luxury brands toward higher price bands, which, combined with weaker consumer confidence due to global economic challenges, has led many, especially younger consumers, to reduce purchases. Bain forecasts modest growth in 2025, with a recovery in China likely in the latter half of the year. In contrast, luxury spending on experiences like hospitality and dining is expected to increase.

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