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China’s 2024 GDP growth forecast at 4.8%, below target

China’s economy is projected to grow by 4.8% in 2024, falling short of the government’s target, with further cooling expected to 4.5% in 2025, according to a Reuters poll. Third-quarter GDP is forecasted to rise by 4.5%, down from 4.7% in the second quarter, marking the weakest pace since early 2023. Policymakers have increased stimulus efforts since September to boost growth, particularly in light of consumption-driven deflationary pressures. Despite these measures, most economists have downgraded their growth forecasts for 2024. There is also anticipation of more detailed stimulus plans from China’s parliament in October, with the outlook remaining pessimistic due to ongoing challenges, including the property crisis.

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