8 Predictions For China's Ultra-Wealthy In The Year Of The Horse

With the global elite gathered at Davos for the World Economic Forum, a groundbreaking new report released yesterday by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists detailing the massive offshore holdings of many of China’s “princelings,” and the newly released results of the Hurun Report’s annual survey of China’s high-net-worth individuals, China’s wealthy are in the spotlight this week.

Adding to this coverage is research firm Wealth-X, which has just released a white paper with eight predictions for China’s ultra-high-net-worth individuals in the upcoming Lunar New Year. According to the paper, the richest of China’s ultra-rich will grow their fortunes faster than their merely ultra-high-net-worth peers, and their assets will become more liquid in the coming year. They’re also going to be buying a huge number of new private jets and spending much more on luxury outside the mainland than they already are, according to its predictions. Here is the full list:

1. The population of Chinese UHNW individuals with net worth in excess of US$500 million will grow by almost 6% to 535 individuals, while the growth of the Chinese UHNW population is expected to stagnate.



2. Chinese UHNW individuals with net worth in excess of US$500 million will experience 4% growth in wealth to US$630 billion. Total Chinese UHNW wealth is expected to increase by only 2%.



3. Despite this performance, China's total UHNW population and wealth will exceed Japan's by 2026, the next Year of the Horse.



4. The liquidity of the average Chinese UHNW individual will increase from 12% to nearly 14% of net worth, still lower than the world average of 25%.



5. The proportion of Chinese UHNW individuals deriving their wealth from industrial conglomerates will increase from 5.5% to 6.5%.



6. 18% more of Chinese UHNW individuals' luxury spending will be done outside Greater China (i.e. China, Taiwan, Hong Kong) this year, primarily in American and European markets.



7. The Chinese private jet market for UHNW individuals will grow by 30% in 2014.



8. Currently, only 1,050 UHNW individuals are non-resident Chinese living outside Greater China. This population will grow by 8% this year to 1,135.

To access more of the latest research on luxury and wealth in China, check out our reports page.